On the 11th, China Gold Network analysis: LME inventory decreased by 7,625 tons to 1,221,375 tons on Friday, three-month aluminum closed up 0.11%, reported at 1,865 US dollars per ton, Shanghai aluminum weekly inventory decreased by 7,447 tons to 739,565 tons, Shanghai aluminum night plate The main contract rose 0.04% to 13505 yuan.

After Rusal's lifting of sanctions in the United States, the business has returned to normal.

According to customs data, in February 2019, China's unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports amounted to 343,000 tons, down 7.7% year-on-year. In the first two months of 2019, the total exports were 896,000 tons, up 9.7% year-on-year. The increase was mainly contributed in January. After the tax reduction logic gradually turned down, the far-month price gradually rose, and led to a collective recovery of aluminum prices.

At present, the market has gradually switched to the logic of consumption recovery. As the accumulated volume gradually slows down, the gradual recovery of consumption may give aluminum prices support.

However, considering the successive cashing of economic data, the upside potential of the market may be limited.

The capacity of electrolytic aluminum is still oversupplied, and the new investment is still continuing, and the supply of raw materials is still gradually released. The cost of electrolytic aluminum will fall again or again. At that time, the process of electrolytic aluminum will continue to accelerate, and the pressure on the storage in the first half will be greater.

In short, in the current market rhythm shift period, the aluminum price trend will continue to glue.